2009-02-23

Top Stocks For Profits In A Down Market

It's simple. The global financial system is falling apart at the seams. Investors are flocking to the one investment that can withstand financial calamity and actually rise in value...

Of course, I'm talking about gold.

In the good times, investors laugh at the very thought of investing in gold. But when the going gets tough, gold always shines. And investors come flocking.

Domestic and international markets tumble day-after-day in 2009. And gold is the the only investment rewarding investors today. (It opened this year around $870 and is already pushing the high $900s.) It's closing in on $1,000 an ounce. And it will reach even greater heights in the very near future. When all else looks risky, gold flourishes.

"After all, in a credit crunch, cash is deemed to be king. In which case, gold owned outright has just been crowned emperor."
― Adrian Ash, BullionVault

Used as money for more than 3,500 years, gold thrives on crisis and investors' fears. Right now,  an unprecedented financial catastrophe has investors on the run. And they're pushing gold prices toward all-time highs.

Don't think for one second that gold has run its course. The biggest gains are still to come, because this financial crisis is far from over. And once the recession ends, we'll have hyper-inflation to look forward to...

In inflation-adjusted terms, today's gold prices don't hold a candle to what they were in 1980. When the Soviets attacked Afghanistan, prices rose to $875 an ounce.

Today, that same ounce would be worth $2,200. Clearly, gold is still undervalued. And even if the price tops $1,500 next month, it won't be near its potential inflation-based price. There's a lot of money still on the table...

"We don't see any reason in this cycle why gold shouldn't reach its real all-time high, which is actually about $2,200 an ounce."
― David Garofalo, CFO, Agnico-Eagle Mines

I firmly believe that gold's seemingly unencumbered price-raising rampage will propel the yellow metal to new highs. It's just a matter of time. I don't even consider myself a gold bug, but I'd be crazy to ignore the incredible profits that await during this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

The Biggest Gains are Coming Soon

The start of this gold bull market began in 1999. As Jim Rogers, author of Hot Commodities writes, "The shortest bull market for commodities lasted 15 years, the longest 23 years, so if history is any guide, they've got a long way to go. This is not a bubble."

The up tick in gold is barely 10 years old. So we should see at least six more years of this party ― maybe more ― with a whole lot of investors making a boatload of cash. And you can be one of those investors.

The bottom line is that the problems plaguing the United States ― the same ones that propel the price of gold ― are far from over. That's good news for investors in the yellow metal.

In my new gold stock research report, Gold Rush 2009: 5 Gold Stocks for Profits in a Down Market, we're recommending five gold mining stocks, all Canada-based, fully leveraged to the price of gold and nearly immune from the chaos enveloping the financial industry.

Before going into detail about these top stocks and the opportunities they present (and telling you how to get your copy of the report right now), I want to delve a little deeper into what makes gold tick, why it will continue ticking, how history provides a gauge for the future, and where your entry points for profitable investing lie...

Falling Dollar Equals Rising Gold Prices

As the U.S. dollar weakens, the price of gold strengthens. When the dollar fell in 1982 and 1983, the price of gold rose from $294 an ounce to $514 an ounce in just nine months ― an increase of 74%. It happened again from 1985 to 1987, when a drop in the dollar propelled the price of gold from $282 to $502 over 21 months ― an increase of 78%.

But our currency is in even more trouble now. The Fed has pumped $15 trillion dollars into the U.S. economy. That's a staggering amount of money.

As nervous global financial markets sold off steadily since October, the Fed "came to the rescue" and cut interest rates to all-time lows.

"Suddenly, the world is realizing that gold is still a safe haven asset. We've seen pretty substantial losses in equity markets. I think this is genuine safe-haven buying."
― James Moore, theBullionDesk

As the dollar enters its next down phase, the United States could easily suffer a flight of capital. Not only will you see each dollar buy less, but, more importantly, there could be less demand for dollars, as foreign investors slash the flow of dollars from Asia, Europe, and the Middle East... or our biggest debtors start to pull their money from U.S. Treasuries. Already China is trying to wean itself off of buying U.S. Treasuries and looking for alternatives like euro-backed bonds. This spells tough times ahead for the dollar.

Gold Thrives in Inflationary Times

Like the dollar, inflation and the price of gold are highly correlated. Since the end of World War II, the five steepest years of U.S. inflation were 1946, 1974, 1975, 1979 and 1980. During those five years, the average real return on stock market, as measured by the Dow, was -12.33%; the average real return on gold was 130.4%.

During the 1970s, gold soared to 23 times its value and a $50,000 investment would have made you a millionaire almost overnight.

Historically, gold has served as a hedge not only against inflation, but also against deflation. For example, in the slump following the "Wall Street Crash," from September 1929 to April 1932, the Dow Jones Industrial Index slid 85%, to 56 from 382. Some 4,000 U.S. banks closed their doors. Meanwhile, the price of gold actually went up.

High Demand, Short Supply Deliver a Unique Profit Opportunity to Decisive Investors

Power shortages in South Africa last year forced its three biggest gold producers ― AngloGold Ashanti, Gold Fields and Harmony ― to suspend production. And the power producers of South Africa say it could take at least 5 years for them to ramp up electricity production to meet growing demand.

With no end in sight to the country's energy crisis, ongoing stoppages would affect the gold supply, raising prices and likely profits for mining companies in other countries. South Africa is the world's second-largest producer of gold (it held the No. 1 position from 1905 through 2007, right as the power outages hit and followed two previous years of decline). This is huge.

Throw in growing investment and consumer demand from China and India, and there's no place for gold to go but up...

For example, demand for gold-based Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has skyrocketed. Forbes recently reported that "inflows into physically backed ETFs have risen by 32.5% this year," according to a daily research report by Barclays Capital. This added 205 metric tons to demand.

When gold ETFs were first launched in 2003, they attracted mostly institutional investors. Today the balance is shifting, and more and more retail investors are considering gold ETFs as an essential component of a well-balanced portfolio.

"I think by the end of 2010 we'll be north of $2,000 and could be as high as $5,000. So why is it going to go to $2,000? Because people are going to lose confidence in financial assets, in paper, in real estate, in the banking system. They're going to get nervous about their money. And we've seen it happen twice in the last 110 years."
― Rob McEwen, Founder of Goldcorp

The oldest and biggest gold ETF is streetTracks Gold Shares, trading under the ticker GLD. It has become a proxy for many investors. Even as you read this, money is flowing into GLD at a tremendous rate. This ETF holds more than $16.8 billion in gold, more than the central bank of China, giving GLD a valuation greater than General Motors.
 
All ETFs are designed to track their underlying indexes, and so GLD tracks the actual price of gold in a way similar to a gold futures contract. But you don't have to have any special futures trading knowledge to capture futures-like profits. GLD is up +16.6% thus far in 2008.

Adding to the upside story, gold futures began trading in Shanghai, China last year ― and that's pushing demand massively higher.

The new market traded contracts for about 350,000 ounces of gold on its first day, a level that traders considered extremely positive given the fact that the well-established Comex, the New York-based metals exchange, usually trades about 800,000 to 1 million ounces a day.

Some strategists consider the launch of the Shanghai gold futures the most important development in the bullion market since the introduction of exchange-traded funds in 2003.

The eight largest gold ETFs now hold about 840 tons of gold ― more than the official bullion reserves of the European Central Bank. Expectations are for overall Chinese gold demand in 2009 to increase from last year's estimated 300 tons.

China is the world's third-largest consumer (and largest producer after eclipsing South Africa last year!) of gold used for jewelry and investment after India and the United States, according to the World Gold Council. And with the growing middle class in China demanding a more Western-like lifestyle each day, you can expect demand for gold to only increase.

How Individual Investors Can Capture Profits from Gold

When you think of gold investments, what comes to mind? A vault packed with stacks of gold bars, rare coins neatly arranged in a collector's binder for passing from generation-to-generation, or the ever-popular "gold you can fold" certificates that eliminate the need for storage?

These most direct ways to own gold have been around for a long time. It's a guarantee that your investment is 100% correlated to the price of gold, so there are no impurities to mettle with your profits.

Many people still opt for buying physical gold in one of the above forms, but as the gold bull rages on and individual investors clamor to get in on the action, more and more tools are popping up and making it easier and more practical for you to own a nugget or two in some way, shape or form.

In my new research report, Gold Rush 2009: 5 Gold Stocks for Profits in a Down Market, we've targeted five top gold mining companies that give you the best opportunity for profiting from the gold bull market.

All of them are Canadian, have proven gold reserves, and are currently unhedged to take advantage of historically high gold prices.

A little more about why being unhedged is good and being hedged is bad for investors.

How Hedging Can Hinder Your Profits and How the Five Companies in My New Gold Rush  Report Maximize Their Potential

Hedging, when mining companies lock in today's price of gold to be paid by a bank at a future date when the gold is produced, is used to protect cash flow and manage risk in the event the yellow metal falls in value.

In boom times, this practice can line banks' pockets with cash and rob shareholders of serious profit. The higher gold prices climb, the worse it is for hedged gold mines and shareholders whose losses mount exponentially as gold prices march upward.

On the other hand, the sky's the limit for non-hedging mining companies.

In January 2001, an ounce of gold sold for $274. At that time, shares of Kinross Corp. (KGC), one of the companies we recommend in my new report, had a price tag of $1.44. Today, gold trades above $900 an ounce for a 228% gain over eight years. Meanwhile, Kinross stock skyrocketed to $19 or 1,219%.

Estimates show that every 10% change in gold price results in a 20% change in the net asset value of Kinross stock. On Jan. 3, 2007 gold sold for $642.60 per ounce, while this best stock went for $11.42. Exactly one year later, gold had risen 34% to $858.85. Meanwhile, Kinross soared 82% to $20.81. Considering where gold is headed, it's still a bargain.

Investing in a gold miner like Kinross gives you exposure to the rise in gold prices, and higher returns if the miner discovers more gold and as gold prices continue to climb and product costs remain relatively fixed.

Start Profiting from the Gold Bull Market Request my Free Report Now

So, it's easy to see why there's so much upside for gold prices right now...

You've just seen gold break the $900 mark and recently blown through $950 and it's going to keep going and keep making rewarding investors...

I've shared with you one of the companies profiled in my new stock research report...

Now's your chance to get detailed reports and comprehensive analysis on all five companies in Gold Rush 2009: 5 Gold Stocks for Profits in a Down Market.

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